From the monthly archives:

september 2009

Entreprenörsgalan 2009 i stadshuset

by Patrik Högberg on 24 september 2009

Ikväll bär det iväg till entreprenörsgalan i blå salen och för att komma i rätt stämning kan man titta på rap á la entreprenör:

http://www.flowseven.com/player/player.php?id=119

Jag har min plats bland de som intresserar sig av internet, om du också ska gå på galan ikväll kom gärna och hälsa på mig vid andra internet bordet.

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Garageföretag del 4 av 10 – Resultatbudget

by Patrik Högberg on 18 september 2009

När man har en kostnadsberäkning och en enkel marknadsanalys så har man lite siffror som man kan göra en budget/prognos av för att se om affärsidén är fruktfylld.

Del 4 av 10 – resultatbudget

Många idéer förblir just bara en idé vid denna punkt. Oftast beror det på att man inte är en ”do it” person, dvs man velar och har svårt att bryta sig loss från sin normala och trygga vardag. Men jag ska ge dig det viktigaste rådet – ”DO IT”, det är det endast som räknas. Går det åt pipan har du lärt dig en massa till nästa gång och går det bra så har du en fantastisk rolig resa som jag lovar du aldrig kommer att glömma.

Ekonomisk plan
Det finns förstås en viktig punkt och det är vad detta inlägg handlar om, nämligen budgeten att det finns en ekonomisk plan som visar positiva siffror i slutänden. Har du bara röda siffror rakt igenom får du gå tillbaka till ritbordet och fundera lite mera på hur du ska finansiera och få affärsidén att snurra runt. Den ekonomiska planen blir också dina mål så det är viktigt att vara så realistisk som möjligt så att du följer den ekonomiska planen med det riktiga utfallet sedan.

Visar det sig att man överträffar budgetintäkterna avsevärt och företaget går bra tycker jag man har gjort ett allvarligt misstag, även om det känns positivt med pengar så är det ändå ett problem att inte ha lyckats förutse det. För om man hade med det i den ekonomiska planen kunde man redan innan ha planerat en kraftigare utveckling av bolaget för det är vad allt handlar om att alltid vara före konkurrenterna. Är man dålig på prognoser så får man definitivt problem i företagets utveckling som kan göra att någon en konkurrent kör om, eller ännu värre en annan kopierar idén och kör om.

Budget/prognos
Nu tar vi kritan och petar ner siffrorna i en enkel resultaträkning där vi först tar intäkterna och sedan kostnaderna och får på sådant sätt fram en preliminär budget. Vi gör den dessutom 6-årig för vi vet redan vad vi kan uppnå på marknaden genom marknadsanalysen och då ser vi hur investeringar ger avkastning på sikt och den sammanlagda resultatet efter dessa tre år bör vara positivt annars kan det bli lite knivigt. Det bör inte ta längre än 3 år för att uppnå ett positivt resultat.

Jag vill bara nämna att jag har ingen ekonomisk utbildning och är helt självlärd, jag har fått lära mig bokföring ”the hard way” för att kunna driva ett företag och en del böcker har också hjälpt mig. Men såhär ritade min revisor i mina första entreprenörsår upp det för mig för att jag skulle lära mig om företagets budget:

År 1       År 2       År 3      ...
Intäkter   Intäkter   Intäkter  ...
Kostnader  Kostnader  Kostnader ...
------------------------------- ...
Resultat   Resultat   Resultat  ...

Så nu är det bara att skrida till verket, vi har redan en startupkostnad som vi tog fram tidigare och vi har även en marknadsintäkt som vi kan peta in. För att göra detta så nära verkligheten som möjligt så finns lite generaliserande knep:

det första året brukar det inte komma in några intäkter, det tar tid att få igång systemen som gör att pengar rullar in
Det är väldigt lite förvaltningskostnader första året, kanske inga anställda, inga hyreslokaler etc
En omsättning upp till 2 miljoner brukar man kunna hantera ensam, över det så behövs plötsligt flera personer på en gång räkna med en avlöning på tre personer
Överdriv kostnader och underskatta intäkter, gör du tvärtom så sitter du i klistret rejält

Så med ovan knep och våra tidigare siffror så skulle vår resultaträkning för budgeten se ut ungefär såhär i tKr:

ÅR               2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015
INTÄKTER
Annonsintäkter   0     500   1000  2000  6000  7750
Medlemsintäkter  0     0     0     0     0     500
Avtalsintäkter   0     0     0     0     0     500
Summa            0     500   1000  2000  6000  8750

KOSTNADER
Utveckling       -84   -50   -50   -100  -300  -300
Provision        0     -200  -400  -400  -500  -500
Löner            0     -336  -336  -936  -2016 -3024
Lokal            0     0     -40   -40   -40   -400
Internetdrift    -10   -10   -50   -100  -200  -200
Marknadsföring   -20   -20   -20   -200  -1000 -2000
Övrigt           -10   -20   -40   -200  -300  -400
Summa            -124  -646  -936  -1976 -4356 -6824

RESULTAT        -124 -646  64    24   1644  1926

- Du är anställd i ditt eget bolag från år 2 och tar då ut en minimal lön om 20 000 (lön * 1.4 arb.avgift etc)
- Provision är säljare som du anlitar på konsultbasis 40% de första åren, senare 35%.
- Du skaffar lokal först år 3 (det här är ju ett garageföretag från början)
- Utveckling är kostnader för att lägga in nya funktioner i webbplatsen
- Förvaltningsfasen startar år 6 och du testar nya sätt att tjäna pengar på, medlemmar, avtal etc
- Du börjar med rekrytering av egen personal/säljare år 4, 3 st totalt från halvåret är ni 4 st i företaget
- År 5 är ni 6 st anställda och har höjt medellönen till 30 000:-
- Övrigt är telefon och övriga löpande utgifter såsom resor, representation osv

Omdöme
Nästan 9 miljoner i omsättning och 2 miljoner i resultat (drygt 20% vinstmarginal) det är inte illa för den här affärsidén, faktiskt riktigt intressant. Så vad betyder budgeten vi tagit fram här ovan, jo den säger i princip att dettta är ett normalt garageföretag som har en väldigt bra affärskoncept som det blir ett positivt resultat av. Med ovan siffror säger jag bara ”DO IT”, det är en strålande affär om ca 4 år och vägen ditt blir rätt svettig men som du ser år 6 så skulle du lätt kunna sälja bolaget då du bevisligen då har ett gott kassaflöde.

Värdering
De första åren är ditt bolag värt i princip 0:- även fast du kan påvisa vissa intäkter, det är en stor risk att man inte får igång affären och intäkterna är inte i den omfattningen att kunna ha anställda. Men situationen ändras radikalt år 3 då skulle värdet kunna vara lite högre runt ett par miljoner för den möjliga potentialen. Men väntar du ett par år till får du ett värde på mer än 15 miljoner (minst 6 gånger resultatet, eller ett par gånger omsättningen samt 2 miljoner i balanser) för bolaget på den öppna marknaden.

Nästa bloggpost handlar om finansiering och hur man ska få igång hela kalaset, det behövs trots allt 800 000:- och de växer knappast på träd. Men jag ska hjälpa till och tala om vad man skulle kunna göra där.

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Exempel på hur man inte ska göra med social media

september 17, 2009

Läste en intressant iaktagelse som Kreafonbloggen gjort kring hur en del företagare använder sociala medier på ett helt fel sätt. De har funnit företag som bloggar men som uttryckligen säger att de inte svarar på kommentarer oavsett karaktär, och ser till att inte ha någon som helst kontaktinformation där – varför bloggar man då???
Ett annat [...]

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